Regis Philbin
Aug 3rd, 2006, 11:32 PM
http://www.local6.com/news/9622854/detail.html
Storm Forecast Lowered To 7 Hurricanes
POSTED: 12:02 pm EDT August 3, 2006
UPDATED: 3:13 pm EDT August 3, 2006
Dr. William Gray and his forecast team at Colorado State University reduced their seasonal prediction by two hurricanes.
"The probability of another Katrina-like event is very small," said Phillip Klotzbach, lead forecaster for the hurricane research team.
The researchers reduced the number of likely hurricanes from nine to seven and intense hurricanes from five to three. Intense or major hurricanes are those with top sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
There is, however, a considerably higher-than-average probability of at least one intense hurricane making landfall in the United States this year, 73 percent. The average is 52 percent.
Researcher William Gray said Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures are not quite as warm and surface pressure is not quite as low, both factors in the decision to revise the forecast.
"Overall, we think the 2006 Atlantic basin tropical storm season will be somewhat active ... ," Klotzbach said. "This year it looks like the East Coast is more likely to be targeted by Atlantic basin hurricanes than the Gulf Coast, although the possibility exists that any point along the U.S. coast could be affected."
Gray and his team says hurricane activity will continue to be above average for another 15 to 20 years.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami in May predicted 16 named storms in the Atlantic, six of them major hurricanes. As of Thursday, there have been three named storms.
Storm Forecast Lowered To 7 Hurricanes
POSTED: 12:02 pm EDT August 3, 2006
UPDATED: 3:13 pm EDT August 3, 2006
Dr. William Gray and his forecast team at Colorado State University reduced their seasonal prediction by two hurricanes.
"The probability of another Katrina-like event is very small," said Phillip Klotzbach, lead forecaster for the hurricane research team.
The researchers reduced the number of likely hurricanes from nine to seven and intense hurricanes from five to three. Intense or major hurricanes are those with top sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
There is, however, a considerably higher-than-average probability of at least one intense hurricane making landfall in the United States this year, 73 percent. The average is 52 percent.
Researcher William Gray said Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures are not quite as warm and surface pressure is not quite as low, both factors in the decision to revise the forecast.
"Overall, we think the 2006 Atlantic basin tropical storm season will be somewhat active ... ," Klotzbach said. "This year it looks like the East Coast is more likely to be targeted by Atlantic basin hurricanes than the Gulf Coast, although the possibility exists that any point along the U.S. coast could be affected."
Gray and his team says hurricane activity will continue to be above average for another 15 to 20 years.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami in May predicted 16 named storms in the Atlantic, six of them major hurricanes. As of Thursday, there have been three named storms.