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View Full Version : For GOP, Bad Gets Worse in Northeast as Incumbents Push Bush Away


Richard Tafoya
Aug 13th, 2006, 11:13 PM
Washington Post:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/13/AR2006081300766.html

When it comes to President Bush and the Republican Congress, Rep. Jim Gerlach says voters in his suburban Philadelphia district are in a "sour mood."

That's why when it comes to his reelection, the two-term incumbent says "the name of the game" is to convince those same voters that he can be independent of his own party. He has turned his standard line about Bush -- "When I think he's wrong, I let him know" -- into a virtual campaign slogan, repeated in interviews and TV ads.

"It is a combination of things, from the war in Iraq to gas prices to what they are experiencing in their local areas," Gerlach said of the surly electorate whose decision he will know on Nov. 7.

The Iraq war and Bush's low approval ratings have created trouble for Republicans in all regions. But nowhere is the GOP brand more scuffed than in the Northeast, where this year's circumstances are combining with long-term trends to endanger numerous incumbents.

Sounding very much like Gerlach, state Sen. Raymond Meier, a Republican running for an open seat in Upstate New York, observed: "People around here are anxious and concerned not just about the national state of affairs, but also their personal state of affairs. As a Republican candidate, the challenge is to show you have even a clue about what their lives are like."

...

Last week's defeat of Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman, a Connecticut moderate who has supported the Iraq war, in the Democratic primary gave Republicans a vivid look at some of the same angry currents likely to buffet them this fall. A Washington-Post ABC News poll this month found Bush's approval rating at 28 percent in the Northeast -- 12 points below his national average. The Republican Congress fared no better.

Republican losses in the region could echo well beyond the 2006 campaign. Because much of the region is tilting Democratic, history suggests Republicans would find it hard to recapture seats once lost.

pinky
Aug 14th, 2006, 08:39 AM
While Gerlach's district has a couple of small cities that are probably largely Democratic, most of his district is overwhelmingly Republican. I don't know who's running against him, but if he feels the need to minimize his connections with the administration, then it must be REALLY bad for the GOP.

Gerlach voted for the increase in minimum wage, and has a link on his site bragging about that. However, in the link on his site that has his statement about that bill, the first detail of the bill listed is the estate tax. He's obviously trying to play both ends of his constituency.

Richard Tafoya
Aug 14th, 2006, 10:23 AM
Pinky, here's some recent polling and analysis from the Rothenberg Report:
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2006/08/pennsylvania-6-challenger-murphy-leads.html

A new poll for Democratic challenger Lois Murphy shows her leading GOP Cong. Jim Gerlach 42%-41%. While this is a statistical dead-heat, the results are significant given the President’s standing in the district and Gerlach’s far weaker position now than he was in his last race.

According to the July 27-29 Garin-Hart-Yang survey, district voters disapprove of the job President Bush is doing by a 2-1 margin. In comparison, Gerlach’s job approval stood at a weak 37% positive/46% negative. The congressman’s job rating in September of 2004, when Murphy faced Gerlach the first time, was a much stronger 45% positive and 30% negative.

Gerlach has little room for error in this race, since he defeated Murphy by a slim 51%-49%, a margin of about 6,371 votes, last cycle. Now, both Gov. Ed Rendell (D) and Senate nominee Bob Casey Jr. (D) are running strong at the top of the ticket in the district and should boost overall Democratic performance.

The race should be close to the end, but Murphy leads in cash-on-hand through June 30 and is well-positioned to move this suburban Philadelphia seat into the Democratic column.

pinky
Aug 14th, 2006, 03:23 PM
Thanks for that info. I never actually lived in that district, but many years ago I was in a couple of the districts that border it. I'm sure that when the election heats up after Labor Day, I'll know more about this race than I want to know. :p