The GOP Shrinkage Problem: Party self-identification at 21% as GOP veers to the right

[Richard Tafoya]

Washington Post:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/parsing-the-polls/21-percent.html

The new Washington Post/ABC news poll (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_042609.html) has all sorts of intriguing numbers in it but when you are looking for clues as to where the two parties stand politically there is only one number to remember: 21.

That's the percent of people in the Post/ABC survey who identified themselves as Republicans, down from 25 percent in a late March poll and at the lowest ebb in this poll since the fall of 1983(!).

In that same poll, 35 percent self-identified as Democrats and 38 percent called them Independents.

These numbers come on the heels of Steve Schmidt, former campaign manager for Arizona Sen. John McCain's presidential bid, declaring the Republican party a "shrinking entity" last week (http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=D50951D2-18FE-70B2-A869B5580CEF1CAE) -- citing the decline of GOP numbers in the west, northeast and mountain west as evidence.

...

The Post poll numbers show the challenge for Republicans in stark terms.

The number of people who see themselves as GOPers is on the decline even as those who remain within the party grow more and more conservative (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0409/21677.html).

That means that the loyal base of the party has an even larger voice in terms of the direction it heads even as more and more empirical evidence piles up that the elevation of voices like former vice president Dick Cheney does little to win over wavering Republicans or recruit Independents back to the GOP cause.

[db44]

Heh. I read the headline and think Seinfield: "I was in the pool!!!"

[itsmeagain]

Once the GOP can get it's act together and stop ripping at each other, maybe I can sign on and finally call myself a Republican. I hope they can do this before 2012, although I don't see it happening.

[Sasha Reigne]

I consider myself an independent but I did vote for Bush in 2004(dont you judge me) I think eventually the Reps will get their act together like the Dems did after 2004. They just need to stop trying to take each other out.

[LesterX]

Heh. I read the headline and think Seinfield: "I was in the pool!!!"

You're not the only one! That was my immediate thought.

[pinky]

Mine as well!

[db44]

'Course, for that kind of shrinkage, you need a big pair of brass ones. The extreme Right, the reason the GOP is shrinking, does not.

[Richard Tafoya]

And it looks like it's getting colder for the shrinkers on the right:

http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/political-media/the-incredible-shrinking-gop-only-one-in-five-self-identify-as-republican/

Okay, this is striking. Earlier this week a Washington Post poll made a big splash because it found that only 21 percent self-identify as Republicans. The abysmally low number got pundits and reporters talking about whether the GOP is shrinking to the point of irrelevance.

Now we have another poll that finds that the number of self-identified Republicans has dropped even lower: 20 percent.

My handy Plum Line calculator informs me that this means exactly one-fifth of adults identify themselves as Republican. Here are the key numbers, buried in the internals of the new NBC/WSJ poll.

Thirteen percent identify themselves as a “strong Republican”; seven percent as a “not very strong Republican.” Total: Twenty percent.

...

Update: DNC spokesperson Hari Sevugan emails over the following response:

When you’re devoid of new ideas, devoid of new leadership, and your only answer to the nation’s pressing problem is to say “NO,” it’s not surprising that moderate, independent voices can no longer identify with you. And all that remains are the fringe elements of a once grand old party that are far outside the American mainstream.